Trends in the Number and Type of Tobacco Product Retailers, United States, 2000-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco product retailers provide access to tobacco products and exposure to tobacco marketing. Without a national tobacco retailer licensing system in the United States, there are no estimates of national trends in tobacco retailer numbers and store type over time. METHODS: We developed a protocol to identify likely tobacco retailers across the United States between 2000 and 2017 using industry codes and retailer names in the annual National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database. We calculated annual counts of tobacco retailers in seven store-type categories and annual numbers of tobacco retailers that opened and closed. RESULTS: We estimate that there were 317 492 tobacco product retailers in 2000; the number grew to 412 536 in 2009 before falling to 356 074 in 2017, for a net 12% increase overall. Gas/convenience stores and grocery stores accounted for more than two thirds of all retailers. On average, new openings accounted for 8.0% of the total retailers, whereas 7.3% of retailers closed or stopped selling tobacco each year, with stronger market volatility following the Great Recession. Since 2011, there was a disproportionate reduction in tobacco-selling pharmacies and an increase in both tobacco-specialty shops and tobacco-selling discount stores. CONCLUSIONS: During two decades when smoking declined, tobacco retailer availability increased in the United States. The economic climate, corporate and public policies, and new tobacco products may all contribute to trends in tobacco retailer availability. State and local jurisdictions considering tobacco retailer policies may find retailer trend information useful for forecasting or evaluating potential policy impacts. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides historic data tracking tobacco retailers in the United States between 2000 and 2017, documenting trends that unfolded as the general economic market contracted and grew, with greater regulation of the tobacco retailer environment. These data provide a context for better understanding future changes in the tobacco retailer market. In addition, the protocol established in this study could be applied in any US-based location without tobacco retailer licensing to allow identification of stores and tracking of trends.

Simulating the Impact of a Cigarette Minimum Floor Price Law on Adult Smoking Prevalence in California.

INTRODUCTION: Minimum floor price laws (MFPLs) are an emerging tobacco control policy that sets a minimum price below which a specific tobacco product cannot be sold. MFPLs target cheaper products and may disproportionately impact consumers choosing low price brands or using discounts to reduce prices. We developed a static microsimulation model for California, United States to project short-term effects of different MFPL options for a 20-stick pack of cigarettes on adult smoking behaviors. AIMS AND METHODS: We simulated 300 000 individuals defined by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and poverty status. Smoking behaviors and cigarette prices were assigned based on demographic distributions in the 2014-2016 California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We drew 100 random samples (n = 30 000), weighted to state-level California demographic characteristics. We simulated six MFPL options and modeled impacts on smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption, in general, and separately for those in households below or above 250% of the federal poverty level, assuming a price elasticity of -0.4. RESULTS: Predicted changes in prices, prevalence, and consumption increased exponentially as the floor price increased from $7.00 to $9.50. Assuming 15% policy avoidance, projected increases in average cigarette prices ranged from $0.19 to $1.61. Decreases in smoking prevalence ranged from 0.05 to 0.43 percentage points, and decreases in average monthly cigarette consumption ranged from 1.4 to 12.3 cigarettes. Projected prices increased, and prevalence and consumption decreased, more among individuals in households below 250% federal poverty level. CONCLUSIONS: MFPLs are a promising tobacco control strategy with the potential to reduce socioeconomic disparities in cigarette smoking prevalence and consumption. IMPLICATIONS: Despite reductions in adult smoking prevalence, significant socioeconomic disparities remain, with lower-income groups smoking at substantially higher levels than higher-income groups. Policies that set a floor price below which a tobacco product cannot be sold could reduce socioeconomic disparities in smoking, depending on variation in prices paid by smokers prepolicy. By using a microsimulation model to predict changes in smoking for different population groups in California under several floor price scenarios, this study demonstrates that MFPLs have the potential to reduce adult smoking prevalence overall, and especially for lower-income tobacco users.